← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Gil Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 37% | 45% | 2.62 | value: +17% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 33% | 26% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Tadeo Allende · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Pablo Durán · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 65' | ⚽ | Manu Bueno · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Sevilla FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Carl Starfelt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alvaro Garcia-Pascual · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darío Benavides · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Fernández · Sevilla FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Loïc Badé · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 196.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1680.29 | 1672.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.05 | 15.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 28.78 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.63 |