← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 54% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.92 | value: +5% |
| Girona win | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Donny van de Beek · Girona |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Girona |
| 23' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Girona |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
| 46' | ⚽ | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · Girona |
| 85' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Miguel Gutiérrez · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 🟨 |
| Daley Blind · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ladislav Krejcí · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 396.00 | 1249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1759.24 | 1753.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.03 | -8.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.81 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 26.92 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.29 |