← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 36% | 32% | 2.66 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 35% | 36% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.33 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Villarreal CF +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 48% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 19' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 31' | 🟨 | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
| 39' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 67' | ⚽ | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 🟨 |
| Jesús Areso · CA Osasuna |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2368.00 | 389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1651.91 | 1760.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.23 | 8.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.82 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 26.77 |
| state index | 0.47 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.74 |