← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 34% | 30% | 2.87 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 33% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Mallorca +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 39% | 2.72 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Manu Morlanes · Mallorca |
| 46' | ⚽ | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 56' | ⚽ | Robert Navarro · Mallorca |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 68' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 77' | ⚽ | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Silva · Las Palmas |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Las Palmas |
| 88' | 🟥 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Suárez · Las Palmas |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| 🟨 |
| Alberto Moleiro · Las Palmas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Johan Mojica · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 53.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1612.69 | 1672.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.48 | -17.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 14.90 | 13.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.05 | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.11 |