← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 49% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.35 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 21% | 20% | 4.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Valladolid +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 45% | 2.32 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 43' | 🟨 | Beñat Prados · Athletic Club |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mikel Vesga · Athletic Club |
| 72' | 🟨 | David Torres · Valladolid |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mario Martín · Valladolid |
| 79' | ⚽ | Raúl Moro · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javier Martón Ansó · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 589.00 | 893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1580.90 | 1816.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.37 | 12.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.81 |
| league points | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 8.19 | 2.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -0.90 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.77 | 27.49 |
| state index | -0.39 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 0.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.55 |