← Primera Division 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 51% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 21% | 19% | 4.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Las Palmas −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Fábio Silva · Las Palmas |
| 10' | 🟨 | Scott McKenna · Las Palmas |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Aridane Hernández · Las Palmas |
| 67' | ⚽ | Manuel Fuster · Las Palmas |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Scott McKenna · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 35 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 281.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1655.85 | 1592.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.95 | 10.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 13.24 | 5.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.57 | 27.40 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.86 |