← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 58% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.81 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 16% | 17% | 6.30 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| CA Osasuna −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 49% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 51% | 2.27 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 23' | ⚽ | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
| 73' | 🟨 | Martín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bryan Zaragoza · CA Osasuna |
| 84' | 🟨 | Álvaro Odriozola · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brais Méndez · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abel Bretones · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 14 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 2157.00 | 2340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1721.31 | 1629.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.27 | 22.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.14 | 8.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | 1.33 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 27.29 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.41 |