← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 46% | 43% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.89 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 21% | 28% | 4.66 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 73% | 67% | 1.33 | fair |
| Over | 27% | 33% | 3.56 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Enzo Barrenechea · Valencia CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cristhian Mosquera · Valencia CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Carles Pérez · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luis Rioja · Valencia CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Valencia CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Enzo Barrenechea · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| 🟨 |
| Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 575.00 | 634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1640.80 | 1642.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.91 | -7.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.95 | 5.84 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -0.85 |
| solidity v1 | 1.19 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 25.26 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.85 |