← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 37% | 27% | 2.68 | fair |
| Girona win | 33% | 43% | 2.93 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Girona +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Juan Carlos · Girona |
| 21' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Las Palmas |
| 42' | ⚽ | Álex Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 72' | 🟨 | Donny van de Beek · Girona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Daley Blind · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | David López · Girona |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| 🟨 |
| Arnau Martínez · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 25.00 | 1213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1541.35 | 1748.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.42 | -32.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 1.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 1.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.16 |