← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 25% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Villarreal CF +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 62% | 1.93 | value: +21% |
| Under | 49% | 38% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Mamadou Sylla · Valladolid |
| 56' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · Valladolid |
| 59' | 🟨 | Logan Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Mamadou Sylla · Valladolid |
| 61' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Valladolid |
| 69' | 🟨 | David Torres · Valladolid |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 574.00 | 360.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1564.09 | 1745.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.47 | -11.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 5.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 26.75 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.69 |