← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Víctor García
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 52% | 57% | 1.86 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 21% | 18% | 4.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Christantus Uche · Getafe CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 354.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1751.67 | 1587.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.92 | 5.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 14.90 | 15.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -1.59 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 28.00 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -1.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.16 |