← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 45% | 46% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | value: +3% |
| CA Osasuna win | 24% | 21% | 4.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 33% | 2.94 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Bertuğ Yıldırım · Getafe CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 42' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Bertuğ Yıldırım · Getafe CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| coach days | 553.00 | 2318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1635.38 | 1686.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.91 | 27.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.95 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 27.95 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.17 |