← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 41% | 41% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Mallorca +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 62% | 1.41 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 38% | 3.04 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Marash Kumbulla · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jofre Carreras · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 58' | 🟨 | Johan Mojica · Mallorca |
| 62' | 🟨 | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 65' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · Mallorca |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pere Milla · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 68' | ⚽ | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 78' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdón Prats · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1605.32 | 1689.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.19 | 37.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.81 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -2.34 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 26.83 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.37 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.17 |