← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 54% | 66% | 1.80 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.99 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 21% | 13% | 4.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Barcelona +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 28' | ⚽ | Bryan Zaragoza · CA Osasuna |
| 53' | ⚽ | Pau Víctor · FC Barcelona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pablo Ibáñez · CA Osasuna |
| 69' | 🟨 | Bryan Zaragoza · CA Osasuna |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sergi Domínguez · FC Barcelona |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 85' | ⚽ | Abel Bretones · CA Osasuna |
| 89' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 2311.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1662.24 | 1987.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.45 | 37.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | 1.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| league points | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 4.08 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 2.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.47 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 24.51 |
| state index | 0.02 | 2.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 2.61 |