← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 38% | 39% | 2.58 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 27% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 73% | 63% | 1.31 | fair |
| Over | 27% | 37% | 3.64 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Deportivo Alavés |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carlos Benavídez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Milla · Getafe CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Antonio Sivera · Deportivo Alavés |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alex Sola · Getafe CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Antonio Blanco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kike García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Rodriguez · Getafe CF |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Carlos Vicente · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 546.00 | 881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1620.57 | 1676.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.75 | 20.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 2.71 | 3.71 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 25.30 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.50 | -1.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.56 |