← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 51% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 25% | 19% | 3.90 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.15 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Villarreal CF +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 32% | 3.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 35' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 58' | ⚽ | Pablo Torre · FC Barcelona |
| 66' | 🟨 | Eric Bailly · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pau Víctor · FC Barcelona |
| 83' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 🟨 |
| Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilias Akhomach · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 326.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1805.05 | 1972.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.67 | 31.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 8.19 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 1.97 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 25.20 |
| state index | 1.00 | 2.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 2.42 |