← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 52% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +11% |
| Las Palmas win | 21% | 18% | 4.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Las Palmas −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 60% | 1.85 | value: +10% |
| Over | 47% | 40% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Las Palmas |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mika Mármol · Las Palmas |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 41' | ⚽ | Alberto Moleiro · Las Palmas |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marvin Park · Las Palmas |
| 54' | 🟨 | Abel Bretones · CA Osasuna |
| 60' | ⚽ | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fábio Silva · Las Palmas |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rubén Peña · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 2304.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1653.78 | 1585.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.91 | -15.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 27.86 |
| state index | 0.00 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 2.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.96 |