← Primera Division 2024-25 · Wed, Sep 18, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.14 | value: +4% |
| Getafe CF win | 19% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 58% | 1.45 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 42% | 2.91 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Alex Sola · Getafe CF |
| 13' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 15' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Romain Perraud · Real Betis Balompié |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Real Betis Balompié |
| 58' | 🟨 | Bertuğ Yıldırım · Getafe CF |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Giovani Lo Celso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 64' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 74' | ⚽ | Giovani Lo Celso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rui Silva · Real Betis Balompié |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1509.00 | 536.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1754.26 | 1630.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.75 | -13.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 4.92 | 4.02 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -1.19 |
| solidity v1 | 1.31 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 26.85 |
| state index | 1.06 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.75 |