← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 47% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 25% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Athletic Club +0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 42% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 22' | 🟨 | Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alex Suárez · Las Palmas |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Athletic Club |
| 56' | 🟥 | Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Las Palmas |
| 76' | ⚽ | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 83' | ⚽ | Álex Muñoz · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 106.00 | 837.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1592.21 | 1782.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.34 | -7.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 14.06 | 14.98 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -1.29 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.78 | 27.67 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.75 |