← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 56% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +6% |
| Girona win | 22% | 24% | 4.40 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Girona +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Girona |
| 37' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 47' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
| 64' | ⚽ | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
| 80' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pau Víctor · FC Barcelona |
| 86' | 🟥 | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1172.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1841.05 | 1957.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.23 | 22.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.40 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 13.89 | 14.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.84 | 2.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 25.32 |
| state index | 1.38 | 1.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 2.33 |