← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 58% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 4.03 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 17% | 21% | 5.70 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Valladolid −0.75 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Hugo Álvarez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 35' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lucas Rosa · Valladolid |
| 41' | 🟨 | Hugo Álvarez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ivan Cantalejo · Valladolid |
| 50' | ⚽ | Raúl Moro · Valladolid |
| 55' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Valladolid |
| 61' | 🟨 | Hugo Sotelo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 68' | 🟨 | Javi Rodríguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | 🟥 | Mario Martín · Valladolid |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Abanca-Balaídos |
| 🟨 |
| Stanko Jurić · Valladolid |
| 87' | 🟨 | Juanmi Latasa · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Anastasios Douvikas · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 198.00 | 533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1672.56 | 1612.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.45 | -13.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 13.88 | 14.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 23.99 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.71 |