← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 39% | 45% | 2.49 | value: +13% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 32% | 26% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
| 29' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Carlos Domínguez · CA Osasuna |
| 62' | ⚽ | Abel Bretones · CA Osasuna |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 86' | 🟥 | Alfon González · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Moi Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 2284.00 | 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1659.19 | 1681.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.23 | 22.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 5.81 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 2.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.61 |