← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Gil Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 36% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 34% | 37% | 2.95 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Villarreal CF +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 48% | 2.21 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 68' | 🟥 | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Villarreal CF |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 🟨 |
| Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1653.52 | 1799.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.41 | 17.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 29.10 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.73 |