← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 80% | 81% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.76 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 7% | 7% | 14.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona −2 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Valladolid −2 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 64% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 24' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · Valladolid |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jules Koundé · FC Barcelona |
| 64' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 72' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Valladolid |
| 82' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mario Martín · Valladolid |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.08 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| coach days | 122.00 | 518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1953.82 | 1616.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.25 | -5.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.81 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.69 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 24.16 |
| state index | 1.69 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 0.72 |