← Primera Division 2024-25 · Mon, Aug 26, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 57% | 45% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 34% | 4.20 | value: +41% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 20% | 21% | 5.07 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 45% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 55% | 2.42 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 26' | ⚽ | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
| 31' | ⚽ | Óscar Mingueza · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Villarreal CF |
| 60' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Jailson · Villarreal CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Carl Starfelt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 18 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.57 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 🟨 |
| Williot Swedberg · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Álvarez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 299.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1794.06 | 1687.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.79 | 40.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 27.16 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.22 |