← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Gil Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 60% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.38 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 18% | 22% | 5.60 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Barcelona −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 50% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 50% | 2.32 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 38' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pau Cubarsí · FC Barcelona |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc Bernal · FC Barcelona |
| 56' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club |
| 75' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 85' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Íñigo Lekue · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| 🟨 |
| Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 115.00 | 815.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1945.53 | 1791.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.37 | -7.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 27.57 |
| state index | 1.84 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.35 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 0.83 |