← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 77% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 8.04 | value: +24% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 9% | 11% | 12.13 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF −2 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Real Betis Balompié −2 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 70% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 30% | 3.52 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |