← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 45% | 47% | 2.22 | value: +5% |
| Cadiz win | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Cadiz −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 48% | 2.21 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Javier Hernández · Cadiz |
| 21' | 🟨 | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 30' | ⚽ | Brian Ocampo · Cadiz |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Melero · Almeria |
| 51' | ⚽ | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 57' | ⚽ (og) | Joseba Zaldúa · Almeria |
| 65' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 71' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 78' | 🟨 | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 86' | ⚽ | Sergio Arribas · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 12 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 85.00 |
| 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1491.93 | 1566.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.44 | 21.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.49 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -1.42 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 23.29 | 28.22 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.25 |