← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 25, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 37% | 30% | 2.60 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.85 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Villarreal CF +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 34' | 🟨 | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · Villarreal CF |
| 57' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rubén Peña · CA Osasuna |
| 88' | 🟨 | José Manuel Arnáiz · CA Osasuna |
| 88' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Villarreal CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Unai García · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days |
| 2185.00 |
| 206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1613.07 | 1738.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.17 | 22.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 44.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.79 | 5.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 27.93 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.54 |