← Primera Division 2023-24 · Fri, May 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muniz Ruiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 79% | 71% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 22% | 7.58 | value: +65% |
| Granada win | 8% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −2 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Granada −2 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 71% | 1.31 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Eric García · Girona |
| 32' | 🟨 | David López · Girona |
| 33' | ⚽ | Viktor Tsygankov · Girona |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Granada |
| 39' | 🟨 | Facundo Pellistri · Granada |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · Granada |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Artem Dovbyk · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 54' | ⚽ | Viktor Tsygankov · Girona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Facundo Pellistri · Granada |
| 61' | 🟥 | Facundo Pellistri · |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| 62' | 🟨 | José Callejón · Granada |
| 75' | ⚽ | Artem Dovbyk · Girona |
| 78' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Eric García · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Artem Dovbyk · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1058.00 |
| 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1785.38 | 1501.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.19 | -7.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 78.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 5.08 | 5.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 26.06 |
| state index | 1.05 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.26 |