← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 44% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 32% | 33% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.96 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Madrid CF +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 62% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 38% | 3.00 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Arda Güler · Real Madrid CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Joselu · Real Madrid CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 40' | ⚽ | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Arda Güler · Real Madrid CF |
| 48' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 52' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré |
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dani Ceballos · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 1083.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1734.49 | 1962.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.94 | 22.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| league points | 51.00 | 93.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 4.88 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 27.46 |
| state index | 0.92 | 1.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.89 |