← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Mallorca win | 69% | 62% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.73 | fair |
| Almeria win | 10% | 16% | 10.06 | value: +65% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mallorca −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Almeria −1.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 48% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 52% | 2.11 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |