← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 73% | 76% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.06 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 11% | 9% | 9.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 68% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 32% | 2.83 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 10' | 🟨 | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 23' | 🟨 | Abdul Mumin · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 31' | 🟨 | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 37' | 🟨 | Pau Cubarsí · FC Barcelona |
| 50' | 🟨 | Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
| 75' | ⚽ | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 18.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1931.57 | 1630.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.05 | -4.07 |
| eye test v1 | 1.55 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 79.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 3.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.55 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.11 | 29.02 |
| state index | 1.21 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.23 |