← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 49% | 46% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
| 12' | ⚽ | Carlos Vicente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 15' | 🟨 | Giuliano Simeone · Deportivo Alavés |
| 17' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Carlos Benavídez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nahuel Tenaglia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 71' | 🟨 | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · Getafe CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Antonio Blanco |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 27 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ilaix Moriba · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 748.00 |
| 413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1614.20 | 1602.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.03 | -21.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.75 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 42.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.98 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 25.99 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.19 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.52 |