← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 68% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.60 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 11% | 13% | 9.39 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −1.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Athletic Club −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jorge Herrando · CA Osasuna |
| 40' | ⚽ | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Athletic Club |
| 47' | ⚽ | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 55' | 🟨 | Pablo Ibáñez · CA Osasuna |
| 58' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Asier Villalibre · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| coach days |
| 710.00 |
| 2171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1750.24 | 1578.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.78 | -38.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 61.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 27.76 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.03 |