← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González Fuertes, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 62% | 57% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +21% |
| Granada win | 17% | 17% | 5.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF +1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Granada +1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.34 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |