← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 48% | 52% | 2.02 | value: +6% |
| Sevilla FC win | 27% | 21% | 3.64 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Villarreal CF −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pepe Reina · Villarreal CF |
| 17' | 🟨 | Tanguy Nianzou · Sevilla FC |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jorge Cuenca · Villarreal CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Yerson Mosquera · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Eric Bailly · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kike Salas · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 192.00 |
| 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1713.48 | 1686.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.37 | 43.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 45.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 27.92 |
| state index | 0.53 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.39 |