← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, May 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 42% | 33% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 29% | 36% | 3.42 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 57% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 43% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Unai García · CA Osasuna |
| 26' | 🟥 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 38' | 🟨 | Juan Miranda · Real Betis Balompié |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 42' | 🟨 | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rui Silva · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days |
| 2165.00 |
| 1373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1592.30 | 1685.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.64 | -7.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 39.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.47 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 27.49 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.21 |