← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 72% | 72% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.09 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 9% | 10% | 11.00 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas −1.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand