← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 48% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 24% | 23% | 4.19 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 58% | 1.78 | value: +4% |
| Over | 45% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Real Betis Balompié |
| 16' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 40' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kike Salas · Sevilla FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Suso · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kike Salas · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 1366.00 |
| 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1687.62 | 1675.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.07 | 17.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 48.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 28.99 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.57 |