← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 37% | 36% | 2.62 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 33% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Getafe CF +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.21 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 27' | ⚽ | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | César Montes · Almeria |
| 41' | ⚽ | Anthony Lozano · Almeria |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lucas Robertone · Almeria |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Almeria |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jordi Martín · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 31 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jonathan Viera · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yellu Santiago · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 57.00 |
| 392.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1492.37 | 1625.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.69 | -3.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.82 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.29 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.96 |