← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 55% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.40 | fair |
| FC Barcelona win | 22% | 18% | 4.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −0.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| FC Barcelona −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 39% | 2.76 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Andreas Christensen · FC Barcelona |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
| 69' | ⚽ | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 73' | ⚽ | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · FC Barcelona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pau Cubarsí · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 1055.00 |
| 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.88 | 1.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1939.64 | 1885.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.13 | 25.66 |
| eye test v1 | 1.78 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 47.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.84 |
| league points | 78.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 2.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.89 | 1.17 |
| solidity v1 | 1.22 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.09 | 24.14 |
| state index | 1.76 | 1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.26 | 1.35 |