← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 49% | 46% | 1.99 | fair |
| Almeria win | 28% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Villarreal CF +0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 61% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 39% | 2.78 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Ilias Akhomach · Villarreal CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Anthony Lozano · Almeria |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ilias Akhomach · Villarreal CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Francis Coquelin · Villarreal CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Filip Jørgensen · Villarreal CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jonathan Viera · Almeria |
| 80' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Almeria |
| 87' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Almeria |
| 87' | 🟥 | Largie Ramazani · Almeria |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 51.00 |
| 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1498.24 | 1710.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.62 | 29.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 14.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.29 | 27.97 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.62 |