← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 35% | 43% | 2.82 | value: +21% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 34% | 30% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Real Betis Balompié |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cédric Bakambu · Real Betis Balompié |
| 64' | 🟨 | Juan Miranda · Real Betis Balompié |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 77' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 444.00 |
| 1358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1676.64 | 1675.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.73 | -34.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 47.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.85 |