← Primera Division 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 74% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 6.00 | fair |
| Granada win | 9% | 8% | 11.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Granada −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.69 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Iñaki Williams · Granada |
| 24' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 27' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 38' | 🟨 | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 47' | 🟨 | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bruno Méndez · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| coach days |
| 688.00 |
| 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1754.52 | 1502.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.86 | -9.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 57.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 26.06 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.96 |