← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 74% | 75% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.64 | fair |
| Almeria win | 9% | 8% | 12.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Almeria −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 32' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 36' | 🟨 | Luka Romero · Almeria |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 75' | 🟨 | Robin Le Normand · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 86' | 🟥 | Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| coach days |
| 1961.00 |
| 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1749.26 | 1491.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.34 | 4.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 40.10 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 49.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 15.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | -0.85 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 23.29 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.75 |