← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 14, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 60% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.27 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 17% | 18% | 5.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Athletic Club −1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Beñat Prados · Athletic Club |
| 31' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 35' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 46' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 46' | 🟥 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| coach days |
| 683.00 |
| 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1757.59 | 1707.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.16 | 14.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 56.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 12.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 28.93 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.26 |