← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 76% | 72% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.67 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 9% | 14% | 10.65 | value: +54% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas −1.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| FC Barcelona −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 68% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 32% | 2.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |