← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Valencia CF win | 45% | 56% | 2.17 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.02 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 23% | 18% | 4.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Mallorca −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 68% | 58% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 42% | 3.00 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand