← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 38% | 35% | 2.53 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 32% | 39% | 3.07 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Over | 46% | 42% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | José Manuel Arnáiz · CA Osasuna |
| 9' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 37' | 🟨 | José Manuel Arnáiz · CA Osasuna |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jesús Areso · CA Osasuna |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lucas Robertone · Almeria |
| 51' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 61' | ⚽ | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcos Peña · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium |
| coach days |
| 29.00 |
| 2129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1505.95 | 1616.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.04 | 5.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 23.29 | 28.41 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.93 |